I'M BETTOR | FREE Soccer and Football Predictions analyzed by unique system and team of experienced tipsters. Football tips and Match Previews for 150+ Leagues and Cups!
I'M BETTOR | Free Football Predictions
FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS   BETTING ARTICLES   TABLES/STATISTICS    
  ODDS | LIVE SCORES | FOOTBALL DAILY | BOOKMAKERS | online casinoCASINO
  Advertisement
Bookmaker Reviews & Betting Offers
mybet
  Sportsbook offers
mybetExclusive 100% bonus!
Claim your €200 first deposit bonus and start betting on your favourite sports! Exclusive offer for I'M BETTOR users!
Read mybet review
PinnaclePinnacle
Are you looking for the best odds with the highest betting limits? You just found it!
Read Pinnacle review
william-hillTriple your deposit!
William Hill provides an industry leading betting experience to sports bettors. To make the picture complete, they offer a £/€20 Free Bet.
Read William Hill review
100% Welcome Offer
Deposit €25 and play for €50 today!
Read Betfinal review
Double your deposit!
Claim your bonus and get into action: Deposit 25GBP and bet for 50GBP! Bet with Betsson on best markets.
Read Betsson review
  Casino offers
10betThe World's Happiest Casino
Get going BIG TIME with an amazing bonus 100% UP TO €100 + 50 FREE SPINS
leovegasYour Mobile Casino
€1,600 Welcome bonus + 300 FREE SPINS
casumoCasumos welcome kit
€1200 bonus and 200 free spins
rizk casinoRizk Casino
Deposit with €50 Play with €150 bonus + 50 free spins
guts casinoWelcome Bonus
Get your €300 Welcome Package Plus 100 Free Spins
more casino offers
Livescores   Soccer.ru
Rambler's Top100  
 

The basics of reverse line movement

Published: 20.01.2018 01:06


Monitoring line movement can provide a snapshot evaluation of the market and understanding why bookmakers make these adjustments can be beneficial to bettors. However, a common mistake is to base betting decisions on line movement alone. Read on to find out why.

Why do bookmakers move lines?

Bookmakers offer odds on a particular sports match in the hope of attracting an equal amount of money on both sides of the market and make a profit by applying a margin to the odds they offer. If they get uneven “action” (amount of money bet) on a game, they will most likely adjust the odds (increase one side to attract money and shorten the other make it less attractive) in an effort to balance the book and reduce their liability.

Equally important as the money (not just the number of bets) placed on each side of the market is where that money comes from. Bookmakers will pay closer attention to the bets placed by customers who are known to be very knowledgeable about what they are betting on (sometimes referred to as “sharps”) when assessing the market and deciding whether to adjust the odds or not.

It is important to realise that betting percentages are not related to the total amount of money wagered on a match, but rather the number of bets taken on each side.

For instance, if a largely unsuccessful bettor who typically bets large amounts of money places a $100,000 bet on a Premier League soccer match, the bookmaker might refrain from changing the odds despite their large liability - essentially taking the risk that this bettor will be wrong

However, if a bettor who is known to regularly beat the NFL markets has a $5,000 bet on a game, the bookmaker may decide to adjust the odds accordingly based on this information.

Most bookmakers will begin to limit or close accounts of such bettors once they notice a pattern developing. Pinnacle is unique in this sense as they will never restrict betting limits or close the accounts of winning bettors. Instead, they use this information to form their odds (one of the many reasons they offer such low margins and let customer bet with high limits). 

What is reverse line movement?

Reverse line movement (RLM) refers to odds movement that contradicts betting percentages in the market - this is when the majority of bets are placed on one side yet the line moves in the opposite direction.

This is why it is important to realise that betting percentages are not related to the total amount of money wagered on a match, but rather the number of bets taken on each side.

The challenge for anyone looking to benefit from using reverse line movement as part of a betting strategy is being able to determine the amount of money staked on each side of the market and which side the more knowledgeable bettors favour.

The money staked by the collective average bettors usually accounts for a significant amount of the total amount staked on any sports match, and so determining the ‘right side’ by tracking line movement alone – in either direction – is near impossible.

We can use a hypothetical example of RLM to get a clearer idea of what it means looks like in practice. If a bookmaker has posted the Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) against Green Bay Packers (+7) for an NFL game, it doesn’t necessarily mean they expect the Steelers to win by seven points. This is merely a marker to try and get 50% of the bets placed on either side. 

Equally important as the money (not just the number of bets) placed on each side of the market is where that money comes from.

If there was a higher percentage of bets placed on Pittsburgh (say 75%), theoretically the line would move to Pittsburgh -7.5 or higher as the bookmaker would want more bettors to bet on the Packers and thus make them a more attractive option. If there was RLM, however, Green Bay’s handicap would shorten (to +6 maybe).

Advocates of RLM would suggest the bookmaker moved their line against Pittsburgh (despite their larger liability) because the more knowledgeable bettors (or “sharps”) have bet on Green Bay. In most cases this is a highly oversimplified evaluation of what may or may not have caused this ‘unexpected’ line move.

In truth, although the bookmaker may have been influenced by the actions of certain bettors when moving the line in Green Bay’s favour, their decision would have been influenced by a whole host of other factors. One such example could be information coming to light that could influence the outcome of the game (injuries, suspensions, changes in the weather). 

The pitfalls of relying on reverse line movement

Betting percentages for different markets are widely available to the public on various online platforms (and from bookmakers themselves). This data can be tracked with records made of where RLM has been ‘predictive’ of the final outcome. In other words, where the line moved in favour of the winning team despite the bet percentage being higher on the other (losing) side.

This information is often packaged and distributed to clients, for a fee, and sold as a “fool-proof” strategy that will guarantee a return on investment. However, the results provided by these “tipsters” are seldom transparent and winning percentages seem too good to be true – and usually are.

Another hurdle for bettors who may decide to subscribe to these services is that the cost of information cuts into their profit margins, which are already relatively small in sports betting in the long term. 

Why traditional handicapping is still your best bet

In summary, placing bets that are solely based on line movement alone is a problematic sports betting strategy. If you’re on the same side as the bettors that influence where a line moves it will certainly be beneficial in the long run, but paying for reverse line movement alerts won’t get you there.

Using traditional handicapping methods and betting models that consider a multitude of factors is still the most proven way to beat the closing line and become a profitable sports bettor.

Related Articles

  • The basics of reverse line movement

    Monitoring line movement can provide a snapshot evaluation of the market and understanding why bookmakers make these adjustments can be beneficial to bettors. However, a common mistake is to base...
  • Winter Olympics medal table outright preview

    The 2018 medal table is sure to be hotly contested. Whilst marquee events like ice hockey may take the headlines, it is the alpine and sliding sports that offer the bulk of the medals. Who is best...
  • NFL preview

    The Divisional round has ended and just four teams remain for the NFL’s Conference Championships round. Who will make it through to Superbowl LII? Read on for some expert insight into the NFC...
  • Analysing the Champions League winner odds

    We are now past the halfway point in domestic campaigns across Europe. The Champions League group stage is over and the competition has entered the knockout phase. Which teams offer value in the...
  • UFC 220

    The UFC returns to Boston this weekend as heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic takes on Francis Ngannou in UFC 220’s main event. This article breaks down the stats for an in-depth analysis of the...
  • La Liga preview

    Atletico Madrid host Girona in this weekend’s La Liga game of the week. Girona have been a threat to La Liga’s the biggest sides and took a point from Atletico in their last meeting. Where is the...
  • Serie A Preview

    Inter Milan and Roma entered the Serie A winter break in poor form with dropped points harming their title challenges. Both will need wins to get their season back on track. Where is the value in the...
  • Premier League preview

    Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City welcome Newcastle United to the Etihad this Saturday, looking to get back to winning ways after their first loss of the season. Where is the value in the Manchester...
  • Premier League preview

    This Sunday, Liverpool welcome Manchester City to Anfield, looking to become the first team to defeat Pep Guardiola’s Citizens this season. Can Jurgen Klopp’s reds continue their impressive run...
  • NFL preview

    The Wild Card round has ended and just eight teams remain for the NFL’s divisional round. Only four teams can progress to the Divisional Championship. Who will make it through and keep their...
  • The importance of speed of attack in soccer

    One of the many uses for expected goals is analysing how important specific tactics are in a soccer match. This article explains why bettors need to understand the importance of the speed of attack...
  • La Liga Preview

    Real Sociedad host reigning champions Barcelona in the La Liga game of the week. The Basque side have a strong La Liga record at home to Barca. Read on to find out if there is value on offer in the...
  • Winter Olympics curling preview

    Although curling is not always considered a major sport, every four years it is one of the most watched events at the Winter Olympic Games. Learning how to bet on a fast growing sport like curling...
  • How quickly can you learn a skill?

    Randomness and luck play a crucial part in betting, but there is still an element of skill involved. It might be possible to win in the short-term thanks to luck, but you won’t win in the long-term...
  • 2018 WTA Australian Open betting preview

    Dan Weston has taken an in-depth look at the women’s Australian Open winner odds. With plenty of options to consider, what should bettors look out for ahead of the first Grand Slam event of the...
  • 2018 ATP Australian Open betting preview

    Dan Weston has analysed the conditions and contenders ahead of the first Grand Slam of the year. Is there any value in the men’s Australian Open winner odds? Read on to find out what the stats...
  • Mats Wilander's Australian Open preview

    Ahead of the first Grand Slam of the year, Pinnacle’s new Brand Ambassador Mats Wilander has put his thoughts on what might happen in the men’s and women’s singles tournament into an article....
  • Introducing Mats Wilander

    Pinnacle’s new brand ambassador Mats Wilander is a multiple singles Grand Slam winner and one of only two players to have won at least two Grand Slams on all three surfaces. A successful...
  • How to bet on tennis

    Tennis is a fast-paced, entertaining sport. In order to learn how to bet on tennis, bettors must understand the rules of the sport as well how different styles of play and court surfaces can impact...
  • MLB Betting

    MLB’s long offseason is underway so it is time to look ahead to this year’s MLB futures market. Which teams could shape MLB betting for the upcoming year? Read on for an analysis of those who...
  • The problem with data mining in sports betting

    Using data as part of a betting strategy is common practice. However, as impressive as some results may appear, the process of producing such results is the important part. What are the problems with...
  • The top five most popular betting articles of 2017

    Pinnacle’s Betting Resources published its 1,000th betting-related article in 2017. With various types of articles covering a wide range of sports, bettors have plenty to choose from in terms of...
  • La Liga Preview

    La Liga debutants Girona travel to third-placed Valencia for the highlight fixture in La Liga this weekend. Read on to find out if there is value on offer in the Valencia vs. Girona odds.
  • NFL preview

    The NFL regular season has now finished and just 12 teams are left with a chance of winning the Super Bowl. Eight teams will compete in the Wild Card round this weekend with only four progressing to...
  • Serie A Preview

    Fourth-placed Roma host last season's surprise package Atalanta in the highlight Serie A game of the week. Read on to find out if there is value on offer in the AS Roma vs. Atalanta odds.
  • Why the FA Cup matters for Premier League betting

    Soccer pundits claim that a successful FA Cup run can hinder a team’s performance in the league. This claim is often accepted as a fact, but does it actually impact Premier League betting? After...
  • Serie A Preview

    Inter Milan host fifth-place Lazio in the highlight Serie A game of the week. Both sides will be looking to continue their early form after performing above expectations so far this season. Read on...
  • NFL preview

    With just two weeks to go in the NFL regular season, The New Orleans Saints welcome the Atlanta Falcons in this weekend’s highlight game. With NFC South Championship and playoff spots are on the...
  • La Liga Preview

    The Bernabeu hosts Saturday’s El Clasico in the highlight La Liga game of the week. A Barcelona win would put them 14 points ahead of Real after only 17 games. Read on to find out if there is value...
  • Premier League preview

    Arsenal welcome Liverpool to the Emirates this Friday looking to leapfrog Jurgen Klopp’s side in the Premier League table. Who will end the week in a Champions League spot? Where does the value lie...
Comments
Comment Box is loading comments...
 
  Email Newsletter
 

 
  Follow us and Share
                  
  Football Daily
  Advertisement

  About
I'M BETTOR brings you free football predictions (soccer predictions) and free football tips, match previews, betting articles, football tables, football fixtures & results for over 150 Football Leagues & Cups. Compare odds from 80+ bookmakers, find the best odds with odds comparison tool and check our betting strategy articles before you place a bet.
 
IAM BETTOR | Football predictions
About Us   |   Contact Us   |   Terms of Use   |   Partners
"I'M BETTOR is a unique online service that offers high quality and profitable FREE football predictions for all major football leagues using its unique self-learning neural network algorithm that provides precise football predictions and football betting tips based on statistical analysis such as points, goals, attack and defense rating, league standings, team progress/recession etc. Afterwards we take into account: team news, injuries, suspensions, importance of the match, weather and adjust outcome tip.

Our team consists of over 40 professional football analysts with 10+ years of experience and we try our best to ensure that you are provided with the most precise football predictions. Based on our system and experience we can predict the result of a football match with up to 80% success rate.

Warning! This site contains informational content on online betting services. Please be advised that you need to be 18+ years of age to browse this website. Internet gambling is NOT legal in certain areas. Consult your local authorities prior to registering with any online betting service.

Gambling involves high psychological and financial risks. I'M BETTOR cannot be held responsible for any loss or damage as consequence of decisions based on information, betting advices or links provided on this site. The visitor is warned to act exclusively at his own discretion and risk.
I'M BETTOR cannot guarantee the correctness of information obtained from third parties.

18+ Gamcare Do not use this football predictions or betting tips if you feel you might have a gambling problem. GamCare is the leading provider of information, advice, support and free counseling for the prevention and treatment of problem gambling. Make your next click to a group that will help you deal with your situation."
Copyright © 2008 - SPORTMEDIA24