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Premier League preview: Liverpool vs. Chelsea

Published: 25.11.2017 01:54


Two of the Premier League’s most animated managers meet this Saturday, as Antonio Conte’s Chelsea make the long trip to Anfield to face Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool. Can the blues keep up with the two Manchester clubs, or will Liverpool begin their own push for the upper regions of the table? Read on to find out.

Liverpool vs. Chelsea betting: Live odds

Liverpool vs. Chelsea betting: An in-form duel

Saturday’s meeting will see two sides who are currently in great form. Whilst Liverpool have won their last three, Chelsea have won their last four in the league.

Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool have won by three goals in all of their last three in the league, keeping two clean sheets in the process.

Their home record so far this season will delight their eccentric manager the most, as Anfield has turned into a bit of a fortress. Liverpool are unbeaten at home this season, winning four and drawing two.

This is no new trend. Last season, Liverpool lost just twice at home; winning 12 and drawing five.

Chelsea’s expected goals this season is only 15.44; a huge 7.56 fewer goals than their actual goal tally.

Chelsea’s away form is similarly impressive this season. Antonio Conte’s men have lost just once away from Stamford Bridge this season, only Manchester City have accrued more points away from their turf.

Again, this is a trend following on from last season. In the 2016/17 Premier League campaign, Chelsea lost just three games away games; no side accumulated more away points (42).

A home side with an unbeaten start against an away side with a similarly impressive record on their travels. It does feel as though their current forms cancel each other out heading into Saturday’s clash.

The previous results at Anfield would cement this premise. Of the last five Premier League matches between the two at Anfield, four of them have ended as a score draw. Chelsea won the other encounter 2-0 back in 2014.

Is Eden Hazard finding his feet?

Since his return from injury, Eden hazard has found it difficult to reach the lofty heights set by himself in previous seasons. Last season’s goal tally of 16 in the league was his best record since joining Chelsea back in 2012.

However, before last weekend Eden Hazard had scored just the one goal in the Premier League. After scoring two in his last outing though, it feels as though he is beginning to find his feet once again.

It is no surprise that he is beginning to reach the levels that saw him compared to some of the best players across Europe. Below shows his previous five outings in the Premier League, along with his expected goals (xG) in each:

DateOppositionExpected goals (xG) November 18 West Brom 0.85 November 5 Manchester United 0.42 October 28 Bournemouth 0.18 October 21 Watford 0.00 October 14 Crystal Palace 0.00

His expected goals has risen across the past five games, culminating in two goals last time out against West Brom. He is getting more involved with play in the final third, and producing on his creative efforts. If Hazard has indeed found his best form, Chelsea’s overall attacking strength is bolstered.

Whilst Liverpool have conceded just one goal at Anfield in the Premier League this season, their 16 goals conceded away from home still points to a side with defensive instability. Could Eden Hazard’s return to form point to a value bet for the blues in the Liverpool vs. Chelsea odds?

Chelsea vs. Liverpool betting: Defence vs. Attack

Whilst Liverpool’s defence has come under scrutiny this season (and for good reason), their attacking strength has been lauded as one of the best in the league.

Jurgen Klopp’s men have scored 24 goals so far in the league (26.30 xG shows they haven’t exactly been lucky to score so many goals). Summer signing Mohamed Salah has scored nine goals in the league, including a brace last time out against West Brom.

Meanwhile, Chelsea’s tally of 23 goals is comparable to the Merseysiders. However, the stats point to a shade of good fortune in their goal tally.

Chelsea’s expected goals this season is only 15.44; a huge 7.56 fewer goals than their actual goal tally. The likelihood is that their current rate of scoring cannot be continued without a huge increase in their creative output.

Whether Eden Hazard’s improvement in form can be the difference remains to be seen. However, based on current output, Chelsea’s chance creation must be improved in order to maintain a sturdy goal tally to battle for the Premier League title.

Chelsea vs. Liverpool odds: Where is the value?

Saturday’s clash at Anfield feels like a chance for either side to prove themselves as one of ‘the best of the rest.’

Whilst the two Manchester clubs have pushed on at the top of the table, a win for Liverpool or Chelsea on Saturday may be a stepping stone to begin their charge towards Manchester City. As City look unlikely to drop many points this season, it already feels like a must-win if a Premier League title is the aim.

Nevertheless, the last few encounters have ended in low-scoring draws. Under 2.25 odds of 2.550* will be a popular bet given that most bettors will see this being a tight affair.

Liverpool’s most recent form at home paired with their unbeaten record against Chelsea in the last five Premier League meetings (won two, drawn three) means a -0.5 handicap at 2.219* could offer value for those who believe that Liverpool hold a good chance this Saturday.

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